fantasy football anti-tips

Don't be a homer

It's always tempting to stock your fantasy team with players from your favorite real team. All true fans believe this is the year their team will break through, so why not benefit from that in fantasy?

One problem: This is not the year your team will break through. No, really, it's not. Stop yelling. I don't care that some sixth-round draft pick made an amazing play in the third quarter of the last preseason game. I really don't. Your team's season will still end like every other season: in misery. Remember, there is only a 1-in-32 chance your team will win the cheap Super Bowl jersey , and it's just 3-in-8 it'll even make the playoffs. So you're probably going to lose double with a bad season in both real and fantasy football. (Seriously, shut up. It was a preseason game. Just one play in a preseason game against other backups. Not only will that guy not be your team's missing Super Bowl piece but he probably won't even make the team.)

So, please, don't be a homer.

The better approach might be to stock your team with guys you hate. Say you're a Steelers fan. A fantasy team of Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, Jerome Harrison, Chad Ochocinco, Terrell Owens and Todd Heap might make you want to kill yourself. As it should. However, if the cheap Steelers jersey have a bad season, you might just win some money in your fantasy league.

Or, even better, you might have the worst fantasy season of all time.

Don't do too much research

Coming off a season in which he had 2,006 rushing yards and 503 receiving yards, Chris Johnson is the No. 1-rated fantasy player by every supposed fantasy "expert" this year. Shows what they know.

History, not follow-the-sheep hype, shows that running backs who break 350 carries in a season tend to decline the next season. If they break 370, they fall off a cliff. Look it up. Larry Johnson 2006-07, Jamal Anderson 1998-99, Eric Dickerson 1986-87, Eddie George 2000-01. The list goes on and on.

Johnson had 353 carries last season … and if you add in his 50 receptions, he had 403 touches. That's way, way, way past the danger zone.

And don't forget that he's undersized for an every-down back to begin with and is therefore more prone to injury. Plus, you have to consider that he got a big pay increase this offseason and might not be as motivated on the field.

In fact, Johnson's collapse is already being seen in the preseason. In a Week 1 loss, he had 7 yards on five carries. In Week 2, it was 22 yards on six carries for a 3.7 average -- well below the 5.6 yards a carry he averaged last season.

I could go on. But I don't think I have to because it's obvious: Not only is Chris Johnson not the No. 1 fantasy player but you'd actually have to be insane to draft him.

Right?

No! Not right, you idiot. Wow. What is wrong with you? If you pass on Chris Johnson, you deserve to be repeatedly punched in the face by LeGarrette Blount and Vince Young.

Don't get greedy

Every draft begins by determining how much the league fee is … aka: how much sweet, sweet cash you're going to have given to you come January!

Because as good as you think your favorite real team will be this season, you think your fantasy team will be even better. "So what did we pay last season -- $75? You know, I'm totally cool doing $150 if everyone else is up for it. Come on! Don't you trust your team or what?"

But let me remind you again: 1-in-32, dude. One-in-32. You're not going to win. "But there are only 10 teams in my league, not 32 like in the NFL! Those are much better odds!" Oh, sure. Go crazy with that 10 percent chance. Why not make it $250? Scared?

Oh, by the way, make sure your league requires that the entry fee be paid at the start of the season, not the end. It's one thing to pay $150 (you'll never see again) when you're full of hope in August; it's entirely different to have to pay $150 in January when holiday bills are due and you're reminded of the fact that, many sad months ago, you thought your Carson Palmer/Ronnie Brown-led team was fantasy gold.

Don't do too little research

Last year, if you had Kurt Warner, Sidney Rice and Ben Roethlisberger jersey, you would have had the makings of a very good fantasy team. Not so much this year thanks to Warner's retirement, Rice's injury and Roethlisberger's … um, let's say … libido.

So you need to do at least some research. But picking up a random fantasy football draft magazine at the 7-Eleven before you head over to your draft will not suffice. Those things are printed months in advance. They have no current injury news, nothing on training camp position battles, some don't even have the NFL draft results. In fact, I don't even know whether 2010 fantasy guides are still available. They might now be selling 2011 or '12 guides. And won't you look stupid drafting Houston Texans quarterback Brett Favre in 2010.

A big addition to the Seahawks defense will be their other first round pick

In nine seasons with Seattle, Hasselbeck has only started all 16 games of the regular season three times. He is reported to be 100 percent heading into this season, but you have to question how long that will last once the hitting starts.

Carroll used his first draft with the team to help protect Hasselbeck by selecting OT Russell Okung to fill the void at left tackle after Walter Jones decided to retire. He also addressed some skill position needs by drafting WR Golden Tate in the second round and TE Anthony McCoy in the sixth. Tate will join T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Deion Branch as an additional target in the passing game.

The running game will be led by a pair of capable backs in Julius Jones and Justin Forsett. Last season these two combined for close to 1300 yards on the ground. Overall, the Seahawks will need to do a better job up front to try and improve a rushing offense that was ranked 26th in the league last season.

A big addition to the Seahawks defense will be their other first round pick; S Earl Thomas. Last season, Seattle's pass defense was ranked 30th in the league, so Thomas along with fourth round pick CB Walter Thurmond will be a welcomed addition to the secondary. The strength of this defense will still be up front with Brandon Mebane and Colin Cole anchoring a line that helped the Seahawks rank 15th against the run last year.

One thing Seattle is going to have to figure out is how to win on the road. Last season Aaron Curry the Seahawks were 4-4 at home but was just 1-7 away from Qwest Field. Overall, they were 6-10 against the spread; 5-3 at home and 1-7 on the road.

Sometimes, though, they become part of training camp, preseason, and even the regular season.

Oftentimes, the situation gets better before it gets to that point.

Such is not the case with Logan Mankins, who wants to be traded after feeling snubbed by the Patriots front office.

Mankins was told after the '08 season that his Matt Hasselbeck contract would be addressed after the '09 season.

He played out what he calls an "undervalued contract," and is telling the Patriots exactly how he feels by sitting out until he is heard.

The Boston Globe recently interviewed Mankins' agent, Frank Bauer, who told the Globe that the Patriots have "totally lost this player mentally" as the saga continues.

It seems that re-signing Mankins is all but ruled out of the equation.

Greg Olsen, who led the Bears with 60 receptions last year

Bears coach Lovie Smith has been impressed with Louis since he arrived last year as a seventh-round pick out of San Diego State.

"He's a powerful guy," Smith said. "He's a good knee-bender, has good speed and had great combine numbers. He can do all the things you're looking for. You can (have him) pull him outside, and he has enough power to block inside.

"He just needs reps, which he's getting. It's helping him a lot too, to go against our defensive line, which is pretty good. We've seen improvement in him, and he's steadily moving up the depth chart."

Earlier in camp, offensive line coach Mike Tice was asked about Louis, and he was already making a positive impression.

"He's very aggressive, he's big, he's strong, and he knocked people around pretty good," Tice said of Louis after an early practice. "For a guy that hasn't played a lot of football, he went out there and didn't show any fear, and he competed."

What a player: Tight end Greg Olsen, who led the Bears with 60 receptions last year, had been flying under the radar for most of training camp - until Sunday night.

Greg Olsen  was the star of the practice, catching a ridiculous 5 TD passes in the 7-on-7 red zone period.

"Sometimes that's just the way the balls end up going," Greg Olsen  said. "Whoever's open. Jay (Cutler) is not dropping back and picking his guys, he's following his progressions and throwing the ball where it has to go. Tonight was my turn.

Then, on the first play of 11-on-11 team work, Olsen streaked straight down the middle of the field and caught a pinpoint throw from Cutler. The pass split safeties Chris Harris and Craig Steltz, who had Olsen bracketed - but not closely enough.

"We've hit that a couple times so far in camp," Olsen said. "Those are the kind of big plays that we're looking forward to making this year."

Injury update: Rookie safety Major Wright (groin) returned to practice Sunday. Twelve players were out with an assortment of minor injuries: wide receivers Devin Hester, Earl Bennett and Antonio Robinson, cornerback Josh Bullocks, safety Danieal Manning, running backs Brandon Minor and Harvey Unga, linebacker Brian Iwuh, center Tim Walter, defensive linemen Mark Anderson, Averill Spicer and Maurice Evans.

Cornerback Zack Bowman suffered what is believed to be a minor knee injury during practice and remained on the sideline for the duration.

Coming and going: Undrafted rookie quarterback Mike Teel was released Sunday, and Northwestern wide receiver Zeke Markshausen was signed to take his place on the roster.

Teel, No. 4 on the depth chart, had been sidelined since Aug. 4 with a hamstring injury.

That's just the way the balls end up going,'' Olsen said after practice. ''It's whoever is open. He's not dropping back and picking his guys. He's following the progressions and throwing it where it has to go, and tonight was my turn.''

Olsen and Desmond Clark have had dominant days, showing that tight ends can become a part of Mike Martz's offense.

''I see you guys talking to Greg. He had a great night," coach Lovie Smith said. ''I thought Jay threw the ball well. Offensively, we did some good things, got some good work down in the red zone.''

Olsen said he and his teammates were excited as soon as they saw the package at organized team activities.

''Our red-zone package is pretty impressive,'' he said. ''You get down in that area of the field, and we have to do better than last year. And in the couple of days we've done red zone, we've done pretty well.''

But Olsen wasn't done.

On the first play of 11-on-11, Olsen streaked down the field and hauled in a well-placed pass from Cutler, splitting safeties Craig Steltz and Chris Harris.

It would have been a 50-plus- yard touchdown.

''Yeah, we've hit that a couple of times so far in camp,'' Olsen said. ''It's just pretty much run straight down the field. We had two high safeties, and Jay threw a great ball down the middle, and we were able to connect.

''Those are the kind of big plays we're looking forward to making this year.''

Meanwhile, tight end Brandon Manumaleuna returned after missing some time with a right knee injury. He had the knee surgically repaired in the offseason, but he downplayed the injury earlier Sunday.

Manumaleuna was signed on the first day of free agency along with defensive end Julius Peppers and running back Chester Taylor. Manumaleuna, who received a five-year, $15 million contract that included $6 million in guarantees, played for Martz in St. Louis. He's known as a blocker.

Training Camp Central: P.M. practice wrap

After canceling their morning practice, the Patriots got back to work at 3 p.m. for a complete two-hour training camp session, which included some nice catches from rookie receiver Buddy Farnham, another lackluster showing from running back Laurence Maroney, and a head-hunting throw that nearly took out Patriots owner Robert Kraft.

First thing's first. Farnham made the most impressive catch of the afternoon, leaping up to make a cross-body, one-handed leaping grab that was thrown off-target and behind him by quarterback Zac Robinson in the 7-on-7 drills.

The rookie receiver out of Brown made another one-handed grab in the right corner of the end zone just moments later, after receiving a pass down the right sideline from running back Fred Taylor, after Fred Taylor received a toss to the backfield. Farnham couldn't get his foot in-bounds, so the catch technically wouldn't have counted in a game. But c'mon, it's training camp, and the rookie is showing he has a pair of hands on him. We'll let it slide.

bullet.gif Now to Maroney. During the first 11-on-11 set, the running back dropped a 10-yard pass over the middle from Tom Brady, that would have resulted in a touchdown, as Maroney was wide open coming from the left post. The dropped pass ended the offensive possession for that unit, and Brady walked to the sideline with his head down. Ball should have been caught.

bullet.gif Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and Fred Taylor each made an impressive touchdown receptions in the 11-on-11 red zone drills. Moss beat double-coverage from Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung to make a catch down the right sideline that he took into the end zone from the two-yard line.

Several plays later, Welker caught a touchdown pass over the middle after Brady fooled the defense with a fake spike on a play from the goal line.

Holt's was the most celebrated out of the three. Hoyer made a nice pass down the right sideline to the right corner of the end zone, and Holt made a leaping grab with corner back Kyle Arrington right in his face.

After Holt threw the ball in celebration, Hoyer ran down and the two gave a celebratory body bump in mid-air.

bullet.gif Rookie Brandon Tate was, at times, being used as the No. 2 receiver on Wednesday with the top offensive unit during 11-on-11 drills, lining up on the opposite side of Moss.

bullet.gif Newly signed offensive lineman Fred Taylor was present for Wednesday's afternoon session, and was sporting John Wise's old No. 71. Bill Belichick announced on Wednesday morning that the Patriots had released Wise, and signed Ghiaciuc. Belichick had also stated that the signing of Ghiaciuc was "unrelated" to Nick Kaczur missing some practice time.

Dan Connolly was playing left guard for the top offensive unit on Wednesday.

bullet.gif Kicker Stephen Gostkowski missed his first field goal on Wednesday, from 40-yards out, but hit his final six kicks to finish the afternoon 6-for-7.

bullet.gif And don't worry, the Patriots' owner is OK. He was able to duck out of the way of a Nick Caserio 40-yard throw that was labeled for Kraft's coconut. Caserio made the last throw in a game that Brady and backup quarterback Brian Hoyer were playing, as they switched off trying to sink 40-yard tosses into a blue garbage barrel that was placed on the goal line.

While Hoyer continued to come up short, Brady hit the barrel three times. He hit the front of the barrel twice, and had one that just rimmed out.

It was Caserio's accuracy, however, that was most impressive. When Brady and Hoyer were done throwing at the barrel on the side field, Kraft was walking through the end zone, behind the barrel and towards the main field's sideline. That's when the Patriots' Director of Player Personnel threw a low liner in Kraft's direction, forcing Kraft to duck out of the way.

Afterwards, Brady gave a long point in at Kraft. It should go without saying that everyone involved was joking around.

bullet.gif And finally, rookie linebacker Brandon Spikes played on the top defensive unit during the entire afternoon session on Wednesday. With Gary Guyton not present, Spikes was playing inside linebacker with Jerod Mayo.

Will Johnny Knox Be Next Miles Austin?

Entering the season before an alleged lockout takes place, the faithful fans of the Chicago Bears and Dallas Cowboys face expectations that are seemingly sky-high.

Lovie Smith, and Jerry Angelo have come to grips with reality. Their respective fates as a Chicago's head coach and general manager is hanging by a mere thread.

With a revamped offensive scheme, much needed assistance Johnny Knox at the defensive line, and secondary advances, there is no reason for failure in 2010. It's do or die for the former NFC champions, who were competing in the Super Bowl just four years ago.

In Dallas, head coach Wade Phillips will no longer be out of the hot seat if all falls apart for the undoubtedly talented squad that some consider America's team once again. Owner Jerry Jones is not one to keep losers around.

While all seems negative for the couple of underachieving teams, there are bright spots within each team's wide-out position.

Johnny Knox, the fifth round pick out of Abilene Christian last year, has become a fan favorite for the Bears.

Like Dallas favorite Miles Austin, a Monmouth University product,Johnny Knox wasn't looked upon as a future star.

While Austin had his breakout year at receiver, catching 81 passes for 1,320 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2009, Knox was quietly making a name for himself.

 

In the season opener, Knox immediately garndered some attention after he beat veteran cornerback Charles Woodson on his way to catching a 68-yard bomb against the Green Bay Packers.

After Knox's preseason performances and contribution in the first game of the year, the 140th overall selection went on to earn 45 receptions for 527 yards, five touchdowns, and a spot beside Austin in the Pro Bowl.

While Austin is Tony Romo's number one target coming into 2010, the Bears look to gain a new identity as a passing offense with Knox lining up against the second corner.

Chicago's radio analyst Tom Thayer says he believes out of the Chicago's youthful receiving corps, Knox should emerge as the most successful receiver.

Will Knox's numbers rival that of Austin's?

Well, Knox and Miles are similar in multiple ways.

    * Blazing speed is something neither athlete lacks, with both players running under a 4.35 in their combines.
    * Both Knox and Austin have been looked as a "natural receiver", opposed to a learning wide-out. However, let their play on the gridiron speak for that opinion.
    * Large, rich schools are something Johnny and Miles aren't accustomed to, coming out of no-name facilities in Abilene Christian and Monmouth.
    * Neither receiver was even heard of in their respective draft classes, while Miles was an undrafted free agent and Knox being drafted in the fifth round.
    * Each target is a favorite in terms of their franchise quarterback, and can be used in multiple situations.

Knox is poised for a breakout year in 2010. Will he reach the likes of Austin when it comes to level of play?

Check out chicitysports.com, where this article was originally written. - Dustin Brown

Bears wide receivers like Knox

Peppers showed his strength with two bull-rush (would-be) sacks Monday, and also showed his freakish athleticism by batting a ball up in the air and almost making a diving, one-handed catch for an interception.

Turnovers come in droves
Picking up where it left off Sunday, the Bears defense hauled in four interceptions and forced two fumbles during the 55-minute, 11-on-11 drill to end practice. Major Wright, Zack Bowman, Josh Bullocks and Al Afalava had INTs, and linebackers Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs each batted a ball out of the air.

Not all the day's highlights came from the D, however. QB Jay Cutler threw two nice TD passes, and Johnny Knox returned the first kickoff of camp about 80 yards for a TD.

Lovie not going 'light'
Bears head coach Lovie Smith interrupted a reporter's question Monday to make sure he cleared something up.

"I don't know where you got that we take it light in practice. That's all because we don't take guys down to the ground, but we're not taking anything light out here," Smith said.
"We don't take it easy on anybody, and these guys are going hard out here. They'll be ready."

Rookie Wright slips out early
After another strong showing Monday, rookie safety Major Wright slipped on the grass during a cut, then slipped out just near the end of practice to ice it down.

"Can't talk now," Wright said after supplying the crowd with the biggest Devin Hester hit of the day for the third time in the four-day camp. "I've got to climb into some ice."

With the depth at outside linebacker and lack of a pass rushing defensive end a major concern, the Patriots have been rotating a group of outside linebackers at practice, which includes Tully Banta-Cain, Pierre Woods, Jermaine Cunningham and Rob Ninkovich. The Patriots apparently have shown interest in adding Ogunleye to that mix. Their interest can certainly be attributed to the fact that defensive end Derrick Burgess unexpectedly did not show up for camp, and is contemplating retirement.

I think all of us have that chip on our shoulder. We want to come out and Greg Olsen prove the critics wrong," Bennett said. "We've got a lot of playmakers and a lot of talent, we've just got to show it everyday. You never know who's going to hit you or who's going to make a big play. There are a lot of guys on this team that can."

New offensive coordinator Mike Martz is known for throwing less to his tight ends and more to his wideouts. Olsen has been running out of the slot at tight end and from a wideout position. But much of the pressure of making this offense click appears to be on the shoulders of quarterback Jay Cutler and the four wide receivers.

"They have no choice: They have to be up to the task," receivers coach Chris Williams Darryl Drake said. "They will. They will. There is a lot of talent there, and they're working at it hard. I think they're going to make a lot of things happen this year."

Still, the feeling around the league is that this is an unproven group, and one that has potential but has yet to show the skill level needed to be consistently great. Martz ran a St. Louis Rams offense known as the "Greatest Show on Turf," when QB Kurt Warner and a variety of receivers put up staggering numbers from 1999 to 2001. Those teams scored 500 points in three straight seasons, the only NFL team to do so.

Can the Bears be that team? Many aren't sure. Bears wide receivers like Knox think it's possible.

Broncos lost their first game last season

A little Hip Hop tune "It's My Time" starts to play over the PA system as Richard Quinn, Nathan Overbay and Riar Geer warm up at the 10 yard line, practicing their first step into motion from a 3 point stance. Another Hip Hop song comes on and Lonie Paxton is long snapping. Quinn and Orton take a break and watch on as Tebow continues throwing. Patrick Honeycutt joins the crowd of players assembling to watch Lonie work. J.D, Walton is snapping to Kyle Orton, Russ Hochstein to Brady Quinn, and Dustin Fry is snapping for Tebow. Nick Greisen is long snapping to Prater which makes me think that he is the backup to Paxton. HORN.

Star-divide
Practice is officially started and the crowd roars. Punt protection is taking place next. I see Kolby Smith, Jammie Kirlew, Nick Greisen, Kevin Alexander, Eric Decker, Richard Quinn on the snap with Kyle McCarthy and Bruce Hall as Gunners and David Bruton as the Personal Protector. Lonie Paxton and Britton Colquitt make up the rest of the unit. The Gunners and Personal Protector switch players and Wesley Woodyard and Darcel McBath take over the Gunner positions while Eric Decker works as the Personal Protector. They practice the snap and Get-off into their coverage lanes. A scout team lines up across them wearing red socks over their helmets, so the "Eye in the Sky" can tell who is who. The punt protection practices their blocking assignments for preventing a Punt Block, holding their block for a set time and then breaking into coverage.

They take about five more reps--by the way, Tebow is still throwing--to Royal now, and the HORN blows.

The team lines up at the Goal line to start the "Hop, Skip, and Jump" warmups. U2's "Streets Have No Name" blares across the air. A few times out to the 20 yard line and back. Then the players run sideways while twisting to left and right, out to the 30 now, and then back to the Goal. Paul Duncan and Eric Olsen look huge. Brian Dawkins comes over and hugs Kyle Orton. Another song plays and the warmups continue a few more minutes, and I notice a player wearing #96 who isn't listed. I assume it is the newly acquired Joe Mays. HORN.

The Team disperses out every 5 yards and spreads out for the stretching interval. Strength and Conditioning Coach Rich Tuten calls out the cadence as Josh McDaniels twirls his whistle and watches on. Ron Fields call for some more tape on his left ankle. Robert Ayers, Justin Bannan, Chris Baker, Jarvis Green, Ben Garland, Brandon Stokely, Kyle Orton, Jabar Gaffney, and Knowshon Moreno are stretching in front of me. I have a pretty good view at the 41 yard line, which is a good place to sit. It keeps the Scissor Lift with the All-Seeing Eye from my view of the far field. As the stretching ends, McDaniels comes over and shakes hands with Justin Bannan. This conjures up a vision of David and Goliath.

They disperse and the Linemen gp off to on to one end and the Receivers and Running Backs run the pylons with the ball while ball boys and Assistants try to slap the ball away as "Eye of the Tiger" plays.

The Broncos haven't been to the playoffs since finishing 13-3 in 2005, then reaching the AFC championship game. For a team with some of its most accomplished players well into the 30-somethings — the team's defense could start as many as nine players at least 30 years old — the career clocks are ticking.

Especially after the historic fade down the stretch last season, when a 6-0 start dissolved Champ Bailey into an 8-8 finish. However, Bailey and others say it's important to remember the Broncos were still 8-4 when the season headed into December and still had a playoff chance when they were crushed by the Chiefs in the season finale.

"We've got to have that urgency, to make sure everybody's feeling that, and that's kind of up to some of the older players," Bailey said. "That's the hardest part of it all, just keeping that urgency, doing all the little things from start to finish, just to get in, because once you're in, who knows? But to not get in and go home, it's almost like last place at that point."

"I've always been a guy who pushes for perfection anyway," Broncos safety Brian Dawkins said. "But over the last few years, you do realize the amount of time you have in front of you as a player is not what it was. I've already been blessed to play as long as I have. That sense of now does increase, of doing things now, just because of time."

Broncos coach Josh McDaniels spent plenty of the team's resources in free agency and the draft to beef up the offensive and defensive lines. He has also spent a great deal of time in recent months on stopping the bleeding. After the Broncos lost their first game last season — in November to the Ravens — they had two four-game losing streaks over their final 10 games.